Bill Gates said it best: “Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.”
This isn’t just a clever observation. It’s the reason most strategies fail and most breakthroughs happen by accident.
We pile January with impossible goals. Lose 50 pounds. Double revenue. Transform culture. Launch three products. The year feels endless when we’re planning.
But ten years? That feels abstract. Distant. Not worth serious planning.
Here’s what actually happens: The urgent crowds out the important. Daily fires consume the energy meant for building foundations. We mistake motion for progress.
The compound effect works in reverse, too
Small compromises accumulate. Skipping one strategic planning session becomes skipping them all. One hire who doesn’t fit your values becomes a pattern. One customer you shouldn’t have taken becomes your entire business model.
The leaders who get this right do something different
They flip the script. They plan in decades but execute in quarters. They choose fewer things but commit fully. They build systems that compound rather than tasks that consume.
Amazon didn’t become Amazon in a year. Neither did Google or Ferrari. They became those companies through relentless focus on a few things that mattered, executed consistently over time most competitors couldn’t stomach.
Your next ten years start with what you stop doing this year.
