McKinsey’s research on 600,000 employees reveals a striking finding. The correlation between current performance and future potential isn’t random—it’s predictable.
High performers don’t just execute well today. They actively seek stretch assignments, volunteer for complex projects, and push beyond their comfort zones. This behavior creates what psychologists call “learning velocity”—the rate at which someone acquires new skills and adapts to complexity.
Stanford’s Carol Dweck found that people with a growth mindset outperform their peers by 47% in challenging situations. They view obstacles as opportunities rather than threats. This explains why your 9-box superstars consistently land in that coveted top-right quadrant.
Low performers often plateau because they avoid risk. They complete assigned tasks but rarely volunteer for the unknown. Their neural pathways become rigid, creating what researchers call “cognitive entrenchment.”
Here’s what this means for leaders.
Performance reveals character. When someone consistently delivers results while taking on new challenges, they’re showing you their capacity for growth. They’re not just good at their current job—they’re preparing for the next one.
Stop promoting people based solely on tenure or technical skills. Those metrics tell you about yesterday, not tomorrow.
Instead, look for pattern recognition. Who tackles problems they’ve never seen before? Who asks for feedback and actually uses it? Who makes their teammates better?
The 9-box isn’t just an assessment tool—it’s a prediction engine. Use it to identify your future leaders before your competitors do.
The best companies don’t wait for potential to emerge. They spot it early and invest accordingly.
Your high performers are already preparing for roles that don’t exist yet. They’re your competitive advantage, hiding in plain sight.
