We all do it. Cherry-pick data that supports our beliefs. Dismiss evidence that challenges our views. It’s not just human nature – it’s confirmation bias in action.
The Stakes Are Real
A Yale study found that 76% of business decisions are influenced by confirmation bias, leading to costly mistakes and missed opportunities.
As Warren Buffett notes, “What humans are best at is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.”
A very real example is unfolding in US politics as we near the elections. We all have preconceived ideas about the presidential candidates and seek to confirm our beliefs that we do not entertain new or contrary information regarding either candidate. And that is how most people will likely vote.
The Bias Battlefield
This cognitive blind spot shows up everywhere:
- Hiring decisions favoring candidates who mirror our background
- Project evaluations highlighting successes while minimizing red flags
- Strategic planning that reinforces existing assumptions
- Performance reviews colored by first impressions
- Product and program continuance beyond their viable value
Like Agent Kujan in “The Usual Suspects,” we see what we want to see, often missing the truth hiding in plain sight.
Breaking Free
Here are three potent counter-strategies:
- Actively seek contradictory evidence
- Assign a team member to play devil’s advocate
- Document decisions and brutally challenge assumptions regularly
The Cost of Comfort
Confirmation bias exists because it’s comfortable. It reduces cognitive dissonance and simplifies our complex world. But in business, comfort often comes at the cost of innovation and growth.
As psychologist Daniel Kahneman observes, “We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.”
Similarly, this same bias is often a limiting factor in our growth and progression. We hold ourselves back from taking on new challenges and setting new ceilings because we are limited by our view of our capabilities and prior performance. ‘I cannot do that.’ Whoever achieved great things with that mindset?
“The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it.” Michelangelo
Your next big decision deserves better than your brain’s default settings. Challenge your assumptions, seek opposing views, and embrace the discomfort of uncertainty.
The truth often lies in the data you’re trying your hardest to ignore.
