Leaders who pull levers without seeing connections create unintended consequences far beyond their vision.
The Ripple Effect
“Every decision you make sends ripples into the future that you cannot possibly see.” —Ray Dalio
Short-term decisions create long chains of consequences. What seems efficient today might become tomorrow’s crisis.
The collapse of Enron wasn’t sudden. It began with small accounting “innovations” that snowballed until the entire company imploded, destroying thousands of jobs and billions in retirement savings.
Similarly, BP’s Deepwater Horizon disaster resulted from cost-cutting decisions prioritizing short-term profits over safety protocols. These choices culminated in 11 deaths and the largest marine oil spill in history.
Blindspots By Design
“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” —Peter Drucker
We construct elegant decision frameworks that often reinforce our existing views.
NASA’s Challenger disaster exemplifies this pattern. Engineers warned about O-ring failures in cold temperatures, but management, pressured by scheduling concerns, overruled safety objections. The result: seven astronauts lost, a national tragedy, and a program setback that lasted years.
Kodak, despite inventing the digital camera, refused to pivot from its profitable film business. Their blindspot wasn’t technological but psychological—an inability to cannibalize their core business led to their eventual bankruptcy.
Decisive Yet Reflective
Indecision isn’t thoughtfulness—it’s abdication. The best leaders balance reflection with action. They gather diverse perspective, consider second-order effects, and then move with conviction.
Winston Churchill’s wartime leadership demonstrated this balance: thoughtful strategy combined with decisive execution. In contrast, Napoleon’s Russian campaign showed how even brilliant leaders fail when they dismiss contrary evidence and feedback.
Your stakeholders don’t want perfect decisions. They want a leader who makes clear choices with eyes wide open to consequences.
The mark of leadership maturity isn’t how quickly you decide, but how thoroughly you understand what you’re deciding about.
Make the call. But first, think twice.
